The Uncertain Future of the Colorado River

The uncertainty surrounding the Colorado River presents ongoing challenges for all users of this vital resource. The unpredictability of the amount of Colorado River water that AMWUA municipalities can depend on after 2026 remains a significant concern, prompting them to strategize on ways to navigate this uncertainty effectively.

The US Bureau of Reclamation and the seven Colorado River Basin States, including Arizona, must adopt guidelines for managing and operating the river by the end of next year when the current guidelines established in 2007 expire. The current guidelines have not been sufficient for managing the river, which is producing less water due to the worst drought in 1,200 years, and to drier and warmer conditions in the basin, which are reducing runoff from the snowpack.

In the last century, the river was allocated to deliver 16.5 million acre-feet among the seven Colorado River Basin States and Mexico. However, the river is now only producing 12.4 million acre-feet and could decline by an additional 20%. In other words, the total demand from users along the river exceeds what is available, complicating negotiations for the post-2026 guidelines regarding how to allocate shortages among the seven Colorado River Basin states. 

The exact reductions to the Central Arizona Project (CAP) are unknown, but the cuts to water providers and tribes are anticipated to be at least 20%. Yet, those reductions could be far more significant, even as high as 100%, based on CAP’s “junior priority.” In 1968, Arizona agreed that CAP allocations would be reduced during river water shortages in exchange for the federal government agreeing to fund the construction of the CAP upfront and then be repaid taxpayers in Maricopa, Pinal, and Pima counties. However, 57 years ago, it was anticipated that future shortages would only last a year or two rather than facing today’s reality of an overall decrease in the river's water production.

The Colorado River is an important water source to the AMWUA cities and Arizona, so CAP must continue to deliver this lifeblood to our communities. Over the past four decades, the AMWUA cities have made significant investments in using surface water sources, including the Colorado River. These efforts have provided the water security to build a thriving economy while significantly reducing their groundwater reliance. 

The Colorado River is vital to both the Arizona and national economies. The ten AMWUA municipalities, along with the City of Tucson and other water providers, have invested billions in their water resources and infrastructure to demonstrate a 100-year assured water supply, a requirement no other state provides for consumer protection and economic resiliency. The Colorado River is crucial for sustaining central and southern Arizona as an economic powerhouse, generating more than $446 billion in Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2023. High-tech industries, chip and other manufacturing, defense, financial services, health care, home building, higher education institutions, and various businesses and services that support the western and national economy thrive here in Arizona. 

The AMWUA cities and other municipal providers know they must plan for less Colorado River water after 2026. This includes investing in Advanced Water Purification to reuse and stretch their water portfolios. They are also vigilant about protecting our stressed aquifers since new groundwater pumping from new users will jeopardize their ability to serve existing residents. 

Water managers across the basin must recognize the need to address the system's overall trajectory. Finding common ground is essential to providing better certainty for the 40 million people who rely on the river, which requires collaboration among all seven basin states. Now more than ever, it is crucial for negotiators from these states to unite sooner rather than later, as decisive action is necessary to protect communities and our national economy. 

The latest projections from the April 24-month Study

The April 24-month Study , which the Bureau of Reclamation just released, contained no surprises. It simply reiterated what we already knew - we will remain in a Tier 1 water shortage for another year.

The April edition of the 24-month study is notable because it gives us our first solid insight into spring and summer runoff conditions in the Colorado River system after the winter season has concluded. Based on the projections made in April, the amount of water released from Lake Powell to Lake Mead may differ from what was initially planned. This change in water volume released into Lake Mead will provide a clearer understanding of what to expect in August. During the August 24-month study, the determination will be made regarding the level of water shortage that will be declared and implemented in January of the following year. 

For 56 years, the Arizona Municipal Water Users Association has worked to protect our member cities' ability to provide assured, safe, and sustainable water supplies to their communities. For more water information, visit www.amwua.org .