Colorado River Shortage

What is going on with the Colorado River?

While we know our state will receive less Colorado River water after 2026, the exact reductions remain unknown. This lingering uncertainty is particularly daunting for municipal utilities to prepare their water systems and help residents understand the challenges ahead. Under the plan advocated by the Lower Basin States, the AMWUA cities and other providers who receive their Colorado River from the Central Arizona Project (CAP) could receive at least a 20% reduction, a more severe impact than the worst shortage under the current operating guidelines. And that may be the best-case scenario.

Planning for an unpredictable future means municipal providers are looking for ways to strengthen their communities’ water portfolios through diversified supplies, significant infrastructure investments, and expanded conservation programs.

Behind this urgency is the new reality – the Colorado River is not producing the water it once did due to overallocation, a 25-year drought that is the worst the region has experienced in centuries, and increasingly hot and dry conditions. The effects of aridification, including higher temperatures, dry soils, and earlier melt, result in less water reaching the river. Its impact is evident this water year. Snowpack upstream of Lake Powell peaked at 92% of the 30-year median, but inflow into Lake Powell is currently only at 50% of the 30-year average.

While the deteriorating conditions and health of the Colorado River are cause for concern, it is more alarming that the Upper and Lower Basin States have not yet reached an agreement for protecting a water supply for 40 million people. The Lower Basin States continue to propose creative concepts that would require all seven Basin States to live with less water to protect the critical infrastructure throughout the system and ensure the Colorado River can benefit all users in the Basin. Failure to reach an agreement could lead to years of litigation, strained interstate relations, and increased risks to municipal water supplies, tribal water, and agriculture, as well as to critical hydropower generation at Hoover and Glen Canyon Dams—all of which would negatively impact the U.S. economy.

How are the cities responding to the likelihood of further reductions?

The AMWUA cities understand they will have significantly less Colorado River water moving forward. In the meantime, they continue to look for innovative and attainable solutions by:

• Preparing for the worst-case scenario and every scenario in between.
• Analyzing infrastructure needs to ensure water can be moved where needed.
• Optimizing treatment facilities and access to their other water supplies.
• Strategically planning to strengthen the reliability and resiliency of their diverse water supplies, including pursuing Direct Potable Reuse (DPR).
• Expanding conservation programs and customer outreach, including reducing water use at their municipal facilities.

What impact is the uncertainty about the Colorado River having on the cities?

Cities run on water – it's a necessity, not a luxury. And the Colorado River is a key water supply for the ten AMWUA municipalities to meet the water demands of 3.7 million residents and the Valley's thriving high-tech manufacturing, defense, financial services, health care, higher education institutions, and other services that support the regional and national economies. The uncertainty is very challenging for municipal water providers that need stability and predictability of how much Colorado River water will be available in the future.

Utilities need time to make operational adjustments for reduced water supplies to prepare treatment plant operations and delivery systems to meet the demands of their communities. Implementing these changes requires significant money from already set budgets and will stretch their existing workforce further.