Colorado River: Time Is Running Out

The future of the Colorado River—a vital water source for Central and Southern Arizona, serving 80% of our population and fueling our economy—remains dangerously uncertain. Last week, the seven Colorado River Basin states failed to meet a crucial federal deadline and reach a consensus on how the river should be managed after 2026, when the current operating guidelines expire.  

With no agreement in place, the AMWUA cities and everyone else relying on the Colorado River still do not know how much water they will receive in 2027 and after.

The New Reality: Less Water, More Urgency

The Colorado River is no longer the water source it once was. A 25-year megadrought, the worst in centuries, combined with aridification of the Basin, has decreased the river's flow and brought the system to the edge.   

• Aridification is a real phenomenon: Higher temperatures, drier soils, and earlier snowmelt mean that less water actually reaches the river. 
• The Reality: The river is producing less water. Despite near-average snowpack (92% of average) last winter, inflow into Lake Powell was only 49% of the 30-year average.  
• The Threat: Lake Powell and Lake Mead are nearing dangerously low levels, moving closer to “dead pool,” the point when water can no longer move through Glen Canyon and Hoover dams.
• The Impact: The AMWUA water providers are planning for a minimum 20% cut to their Colorado River allocation. They know the reductions could be greater as the river’s poor hydrology intensifies, which makes preparing their systems even more challenging.

The Political Impasse: Why No Deal?

While the worsening conditions are concerning, it is more alarming that the negotiators from the seven states cannot agree on how to protect a vital water supply for 40 million people. 

After more than two years of negotiations, the Basin States have only dug themselves deeper into an impasse, while Colorado River conditions have worsened. Upper Basin officials argue that the Lower Basin states need to accept all reductions, repeatedly stating that everyone must now accept the river as it is, rather than what they want it to be or what it was before the effects of climate change. Lower Basin officials offered, over a year ago, to take the initial and larger impact, but asked the Upper Basin to agree to reduce its water use as well when the combined contents of all major Colorado River reservoirs drop below 38%. Currently, the Colorado River system is at a mere 37% capacity.  

Arizona’s Stance: Demand for Fair Cuts

As Governor Hobbs recently stated, Arizona cannot accept a deal that requires our state to shoulder all the pain while upstream states refuse to make proportional cuts.

With the Basin States missing the federal deadline, Governor Hobbs and a bipartisan group of Arizona legislative leaders have urged the federal government to step up and provide leadership with clear demands:

• Impose Cuts Equitably: Any mandated federal solution must require all seven states to make proportional cuts while recognizing the existing reductions Arizona has taken and Arizona’s voluntary efforts to conserve water in Lake Mead. 
• Protect the National Economy: Post-2026 Colorado River operations must provide reliability to safeguard Arizona’s crucial role in the national economy, especially with its high-tech manufacturing sector and the agriculture industry that supplies the nation's winter leafy greens.

AMWUA Cities Face Uncertainty

For over four decades, AMWUA cities have invested heavily in utilizing the Colorado River water to diversify their water portfolios and reduce their reliance on groundwater. Now, planning for a future with at least 20% less Colorado River water requires new, immediate investments:

• Initially, Offsetting Reductions: Municipal providers may need to recover water stored underground and pump groundwater set aside in their assured water supply designations. The AMWUA cities know that relying on the aquifer cannot be a long-term solution.  
• The Path Forward: Long-term water security requires developing new supplies to offset Colorado River reductions, which also protect the vulnerable aquifer and ensure that new growth is not solely reliant on groundwater.

The AMWUA cities are actively planning for a future with less water, even though they do not yet know how much they will be cut back in just 13 months. Whatever is decided for how the Colorado River operates after 2026, as well as how Arizona addresses its reduction, all parties need to ensure that municipal water providers in Central and Southern Arizona can meet the water needs of their customers. Anything less will damage Arizona’s and the country’s economy.  

The Bottom Line: Collaboration Can’t Wait

The Colorado River crisis isn’t just a water problem—it’s an economic, environmental, and community challenge. Each delay exacerbates the issue, and the consequences become more severe. The time for talking is over. Action is needed. A fair, sustainable agreement among all seven states is the only way to secure the river’s future—and ours.

For 56 years, the Arizona Municipal Water Users Association has worked to protect our member cities' ability to provide assured, safe, and sustainable water supplies to their communities. For more water information, visit www.amwua.org .